Early this morning, all six primary voters in Dixville Notch voted for Nikki Haley.
Yes, today is the New Hampshire primary, and it’s gonna be a strange one. For one thing, the current frontrunner and sitting president isn’t even on the ballot, thanks to the DNC picking a fight with the state over its “first in the nation” law. For another, it’s open to everyone, even if they’re not registered party members. It’ll be tough to call.
A note on the semi-open primary: This doesn’t mean that Democrats can vote for Trump or Republicans for Dean Phillips, the present Democratic front-runner in the state (since Uncle Joe isn’t on the ballot). All it does is let independents weigh in — once. Each registered voter can pick one candidate, or write in Biden if they want. (Write in Mickey Mouse and they don’t bother to count it.)
There’s a very real chance Nikki Haley and Dean Phillips will win, this despite significant disadvantages in recent polls. The Republican vote had been split, but Christie, Ramaswamy, and now DeSantis have all dropped out. (Oh, and Asa Hutchinson; sorry about that, Governor.)
Despite this, the smart money is still on a repeat Biden-Trump matchup come November, God help us.
Now, a lot of fake and doctored video has been shown as ‘evidence’ of Biden’s mental decline. There’s some legitimate stuff out there too, but let’s face it: The man’s never been the sharpest butter knife in the drawer. His biggest crime is plagiarism (a repeat offender), which is hardly the mark of a facile mind. Despite all the partisan accusations of wrongdoing, I’m convinced he’s honest, sincere… and pretty dim.
But he’s also 81. And Trump’s no spring chicken; he’s 78. The chances that one or both of these men will die of natural causes between now and the next inauguration is pretty darn high, and over the following four years approaches certainty.
Trump, unlike Biden, has begun showing his age. His multiple gaffes on the campaign trail include confusion about his opponents, members of Congress, what state he’s in, what time it is, the difference between Hungary and Turkey, and so on. He recently warned us about the dangers of sliding into World War Two. Since the Axis was soundly defeated in 1945, I think we’re safe.
Don’t get me wrong: I’m not saying that Trump is more senile than Biden. If anything, I guess I’m saying that even a senile Trump is smarter than Biden in his prime, depressing though that concept is.
But honestly: Can you tell me that either of these two octogenarians is the best their party has to offer?
Is there any reason at all to think that a second Trump term would be anything other than a disaster? Are there any grounds to think that of Biden? The market uncertainty alone engendered by the candidates’ ages is, in my opinion, sufficient to make an honorable person drop out or, if elected, resign soon after. (Personally, I bet Biden does, even if he survives. Trump, not so much. “Honorable person”, remember?)
We’re racing to the bottom of the barrel, people, and between Trump and Biden it’s a dead heat.
Is there still hope?
If Dean Phillips, against tremendous odds, manages to pull off a victory in New Hampshire, there’s a faint chance he can gain enough momentum and political capital to score well in a few other states. He has very little name recognition, to the point that some polls suggest that even a dead Biden would beat him in the primary. However, it’s two months to Super Tuesday, and that’s an eternity in politics. Anything could happen.
…But it won’t. He’s doomed. I admire his optimism, but he’s got no chance, poor guy. After today, write him off.
If Nikki Haley, against slightly less daunting odds, wins New Hampshire, she’s also likely to poll very well in her home state of South Carolina. She’ll have broad cross-party support in those states with open primaries, and without funding competition she’s likely to go to the next contests with a massive war chest. Will it be enough to defeat Trump? Unlikely… unless he ends up with criminal convictions near polling dates.
(Even with that, though: A court has judged him a rapist, and he’s still doing well in the polls. His supporters aren’t willing to let other people tell them the facts; they want to determine truth for themselves. That they appear to be startlingly bad at it doesn’t change their minds.)
The bottom line: Things are bad and getting worse. Who’s to blame? The American voting public. Again.
Yep. That’s you. This is your fault.
How can you fix it? Register Republican and vote Haley in the primary, even if not in the general election. Bring along a couple million of your closest friends. You may dislike her politics; you may disapprove of her foreign policy. Just remember: She’s unlikely to die of old age before taking office, she’s not a convicted criminal, and she’s got an I.Q. above room temperature.
They’re not high bars, but she’s the only candidate to clear them.
God help us.
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