A while ago, I decided that continuing to talk about Donald Trump would only keep giving him free press. I find him odious enough that the last thing I want to do is give him anything for free, so I simply stopped.

However, it’s now election time, and enough people have asked me that, finally, I figure it’s both safe and useful to provide the best information I can about what’s going to happen, in as unbiased a fashion as practicable, and without saying “I don’t know” too much.

Ready?

Who’s Going To Win?

I don’t know.

Here’s what I do know:

There’s been a ton of polling done, both by the campaigns and in behalf of every major media organization. This is (as always) the Most Important Election Blah Blah Blah, so everyone’s trying to handicap it. And the answer is “Within the Margin Of Error” in most instances.

Most states in the nation aren’t battlegrounds, not today. California, we know. Same for New York. The Dakotas will go Trump. And so on. Setting aside the certainties, there are eleven states that have a chance to go either way. Of these, only six are serious questions: Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Georgia. All of those are, at present, too close to call.

But.

• Trump has the numbers edge. If he takes Pennsylvania, it’s pretty much a guarantee he wins the whole thing.
• There’s a huge anti-Democrat movement in the midwest thanks to Israel and Gaza — from inside the party. But will they go so far as to vote Trump? Or will they just stay home and fume?
• Georgia went Biden largely because of COVID voting policies, which have now been rescinded.
• Nevada’s a coin flip, which makes perfect sense. North Carolina is too, which doesn’t.

The models all look very close, but that’s according to polls. What’s the present state of poll bias in politics? We have no idea.

Just one of the uncertainties we face: Even in this day and age, a substantial fraction of the population, when faced with the choice between a woman and Trump, or a non-white candidate and Trump, will simply stay home.

There is, however, one simple deciding factor which a lot of the pundits appear to be missing. The major issue this election among the few remaining undecideds is the economy, and news of that shifts from day to day. Monday morning’s market is unsettled, but world markets are generally doing well. The Fed is about to cut interest rates, China is moving to stabilize their economy, and the news from Europe is generally positive. This means that the perception on Election Day is likely to be slightly more pro-Democrat than not.

In my mind, that will swing the election just far enough toward Harris that she takes it — IF there’s no horribly bad news during the next day or so.

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In all of this, where am I voting? You may well ask.

In general, I’m opposed to both major parties. Their machines get in the way of essential social change. Plus, I don’t happen to live in a swing state. My usual action would be to vote third party.

But I really don’t like Trump. The man positively oozes odium. At this moment, that’s marginally stronger than my antipathy for Harris and the circumvention of the primaries. I’m honestly undecided.

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