…for tomorrow we die.

The charts are curving up again. Diagnoses are starting to spike; daily hospital admissions are on the rise. This new Delta variant of COVID is going to be nastier than the last one, and vaccines won’t stop it. The time has come to lock down again.

Well, almost.

Yes, we’re seeing increases in positive diagnoses, but because of our large vaccination percentage, serious cases and hospitalizations should only be about half what they were last year. One in ten Americans has actually had the virus, and over half a million have died from it; even considering that Delta is far more virulent, if we take the proper precautions it can only be twice as bad at the worst, and it’s as likely to be only a quarter. Only a couple hundred thousand are likely to die of it this winter.

Best case scenario: That’s still four times as bad as the worst flu seasons in recent history. It’s gonna be pretty bad.

We’ve got confirmation that, vaccine or no vaccine, recovered or not, breakthrough infections are not only possible but likely. Those of us with partial immunity will still be able to transmit COVID even if we have no symptoms.

On the other hand, we’ve got a lot of things going for us. Most importantly, we know what we’re doing. Nobody’s about to die from drinking detergent this time around; nobody’s going to overdose on aquarium cleaner out of paranoia. We’re not going to run out of toilet paper again, and we’re not going to end up having to bleach our groceries. Best of all, we all know to wear masks, socially distance, wash our hands, work from home, and avoid indoor crowds.

The numbers are different state to state, but nowhere are they actually good. In some parts of the country, like Alabama and Louisiana, there’s already something like a 5% chance that you’ve been exposed right now. You should already be self-quarantining and wearing masks, avoiding other people like the plague… because they’ve got the plague.

In other states, the numbers are still pretty decent. Even considering that reports lag reality by a week or more, and that diagnoses lag infection by yet another week, we’re still only looking at a few hundred cases per million. It’s early yet.

So go on a walk and recharge. Take a nice deep breath. Enjoy the sunshine.

It’s likely to be your last chance for a while.

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