There Is No War In Ukraine. (Or Albania.)

“There are two things I know to be true: There’s no difference between good flan and bad flan, and there is no war.”
– C.I.A. Agent Mr. Young, “Wag The Dog”
(image courtesy New Line Cinemas)

So if you haven’t seen the movie “Wag The Dog”, watch the movie. And I’m not just telling you that in order to dodge a “Take It Down” notice; frankly, I doubt any studio would waste the effort on the likes of me. Rather, it will inform you about what’s not going on in Ukraine right now.

If you’re so pressed for time that you can’t watch a movie based on my personal recommendation, you’ve got some misplaced life priorities, and sometime later you should reconsider them (except you never will due to aforementioned misplaced priorities). But just for you, I’ll do a TL;DW.

SPOILERS FOLLOW: Presidential popularity is sliding, so a shadowy operative recruits a Hollywood director to film a war that doesn’t happen. News spots, talk shows, brand new old songs, leopard-print berets — it’s all there. This flick’s got everything, including DeNiro and Dustin Hoffman. But what happens when the secret gets out?

THIS IS NOT WHAT’S HAPPENING WITH UKRAINE.

It would be comforting, in a backhanded way, to be able to accept that this is just a psychological operation, that world governments are working together to prevent real bloodshed through the expedient of artificially raising tensions in order to accomplish their Secret Goals. The actual truth is far more terrifying: There is nobody in charge except the politicians, who are just as venal, inept, unstable, and in some cases senile as they seem. There exists a vast bureaucracy, the sheer inertia of which prevents us from catapulting ourselves into war after war, and global populations are massively apathetic — yes, even in the face of possible nuclear conflict.

Think of it as “Disaster Apathy”. We see it in combat units and in populations under perpetual threat. It’s one of the reasons we survivors of the Cold War are so cynical; we grew up with the certain knowledge that one day there’d be this bright flash and then we’d be reduced to carbon outlines on the wall. Comparatively, everything less than that is really no big deal. It’s not age that creates such an attitude but rather decades of induced trauma, and it pops up regularly throughout history if you’re looking for it.

The truth of what’s happening with Ukraine is simple enough; it involves oil, liquified natural gas (LNG), pipelines, fracking, inflation, and an ogliarchic kleptocracy called Russia. (Incidentally: I have nothing whatsoever against oligarchic kleptocracies. I wouldn’t want to live in one, but on the other hand I kinda do, and so do you, so who are we to throw stones? -Editor)

Doesn’t sound simple, does it?

OK; let’s try this: Look at a map. A globe. …Do none of you own an atlas?! *sigh* Well, then, click this link: https://www.google.com/maps/@43.1094776,50.0033073,5.42z

Stage left, Ukraine. It’s a right-wing kleptocracy just like most of the other nations nearby, a former Soviet republic, and has been the touch point for many a war and doubtless will be again, mostly because it’s very wealthy and its neighbors are very much not. There’s excellent farmland, lovely port cities, and good roads to markets in Europe.

Just to the right of Ukraine we have a massive Russian military buildup, bigger than anything we’ve seen since the Cold War. Go a little further right and you see Kazakhstan, militantly right-wing fringe ally of Russia and ground zero for massive protests over energy prices. There is a huge Russian peacekeeping force there right now.

Now look south. There’s an inland sea, at the bottom of which… Yes; that’s correct: Tehran. In Iran. A place where they can’t give away their excess oil for love or money because the whole world is boycotting them on the theory that an Iran with nuclear weapons would mean the nuclear annihilation of the entire Middle East. Considering that Iran is presently exporting high-tech missiles in wholesale quantities and scot-free to terrorists around the world on the condition that they be fired, it’s not an unreasonable concern.

Russia would like that oil. Kazakhstan would like that oil. And every other ‘Stan from Kyrgystan west to Georgia is firmly opposed to Iran getting money for oil, because they’re sane and terrorists aren’t. Russia has a problem.

Simple solution to Russia’s problem: Have Iran stop building nuclear weapons.

Not-so-simple solution: Build a massive export operation called Nord Stream II for your nation’s entire LNG production so you can sell it to Germany cheap (while your own population suffers) and pocket the proceeds. When the global LNG market tanks due largely to American fracking, and Germany no longer wants to pay for LNG, apply leverage so Germany caves. If Germany fails to cave, have a massive military force ready to either invade Ukraine OR, and this is the biggie, to aid Iran when they annex Iraq, and use your troops to build a pipeline over the new parking lot that used to be Azerbaijan.

You see, it’s not a simple threat. It goes in two directions, and it’s very serious. Not to say that Russia wants a war with NATO; they don’t. Even if they could keep it from becoming nuclear, they’d lose badly, and they know it.

But they also know that Europe and the United States each lacks the political will to fight yet another war in the Middle East. Add to this that China is flexing its muscles and suddenly we’re looking at the very real potential for a three-ocean war between four distinct factions if things go wrong.

Right now Russia is gambling on things not going wrong. And, because American aircraft carriers are presently stretched untenably thin (only four out of eleven are deployed), they’re probably going to get some of what they’re after without even a small war. Probably.

So, if all this is eventually just going to blow over, why is CNN telling us that World War III is coming? Why is Russian television going on about how the evil Americans are preparing to invade? Why is Fox News slyly hinting that Biden, in desperate need for a ratings bump, is trying to Wag The Dog?

Ratings, propaganda, and the 2022 midterms.


If what you just read pisses you off, that’s not because it’s wrong. People are wrong every day and it doesn’t get to you. If you’re upset by this article, it’s because deep down you’re afraid it’s true.

No, The Not Fake News did not “get the memo” to “fall in line or else”; we’d find it hard to believe that anything else would be, financially, worse than this. We’re not shills of the public narrative; we don’t take marching orders from major media. We’re independent, and because we don’t get payoffs or even ad money, we’re poor but reliable.

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P.S. Yes, we’re still on hiatus. Don’t bother me. -Editor

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