CNN won’t call it, but I will. Having said that, if your only source of trusted news is some guy’s blog, you probably deserve what you get.
But enough about you; let’s get to it:
We presently stand at 204 to 212, and as soon as one side gets to 218, they control the House. For a little while, at least.
Alaska: Peltota (D) — Ranked-choice means they won’t actually be sure until the 24th or later, but Peltota is awfully near the invincible 50% mark. If zero Republicans voted for her as their second choice, she’ll probably lose — but the number is greater than zero.
Arizona 1st: Schweikert (R) — Close, but only close — UPDATE: Called R.
Arizona 6th: Ciscomani (R) — A lot of what they’re waiting on is military ballots, which traditionally break Republican. — UPDATE: Called R.
Colorado 3rd: Boebert (R) — The AP is miscalling this as “automatic recount”; however, I believe they’re misreading Colorado law. This election will stand as a very narrow win.
Colorado 8th: Caraveo (D) — I think CNN is being overly cautious in not calling this one.
Maine: Golden (D) — Like Alaska, this is a ranked-choice voting state. Unlike in Alaska, however, the third-party candidate is centrist, and so is Golden (unlike his opponent). — UPDATE: Called D.
New Mexico 2nd: Vasquez (D) — Again, I think major media is being overly cautious. — UPDATE: Called D.
New York 22nd: Williams (R) — It’s possible I’m wrong here, but I doubt it. — UPDATE: Called R.
Oregon 6th: Salinas (D) — The last of the ballots won’t arrive until tomorrow, so it’s probably irresponsible to call it… but—
— UPDATE: Called D.
California: As in Oregon, the last of the ballots won’t arrive until tomorrow, and counting is deadly slow. Of the eleven seats still uncalled, one is D-on-D; that’s a no-brainer (even for CNN). In four of the rest, the Democrat has a significant lead. One is likely Republican — by over 5%. We figure the rest as split down the middle, that’s 3.5 R and 6.5 D.
That means the House will likely swing Republican by two and a half seats… and, using the time-honored “Toss A Coin Method”, the half-seat goes Democrat, because someone’s got to win.
UPDATE: So far, we’re dead on the money. Coin toss could go either way, though.
DISCLAIMER: I could be wrong. I could easily be wrong. So what? I’m making an educated guess here, which I’m willing to do because I’ve probably spent more time reading up on this stuff than you have. (If not, either you have no life and should probably get one… or you work in politics. But I repeat myself.)
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