Notes On The Collapse

Winter 2020: The Great Fire

In early July, we released an exhaustive article on COVID-19 trends. It was meticulously researched, with dozens of subordinate links to data sources. In it, we cited our earlier prediction that, unless Americans were to act with unprecedented foresight and responsibility, we were looking at between one and six million deaths by the end of autumn. Our tracking gave us cause for cautious optimism.

Winter officially begins in one week, and the official COVID-19 death count just passed 300,000. Given the standard two to six week lag time in reports combined with a 3000+ person daily increase, the final numbers will be closer to 400,000 by that point. Advances in hospital treatment protocols combined with local lockdowns and responsible behavior in much of the country have prevented, at great cost, the loss of millions of American lives. Our optimism has proven justified.

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Lame-Duck Stimulus

Congress has been fighting for months over the size of the next stimulus package. Now that the election has been more or less decided, there remains a chance that the lame-duck session might pass something in time for Christmas. But should they, and if so how much?

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F&L 2020: Conceding?

On the one hand, there’s no obligation anywhere for Trump to concede — not constitutional, not ethical, and certainly not out of self-interest. On the other, it’s genuinely inconvenient — and worse — for Democrats, particularly Uncle Joe.

So what’s up? What should happen right now, and how much should the rest of us care?

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F&L 2020: It’s Not Over

It’s not over yet, people.

No, not the Presidential race, though to be sure we’re still working through some of the process. Instead, let us consider the Senate: presently deadlocked at 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, with a probable two seats up for runoff elections in Georgia.

Republicans don’t seem to have quite realized yet that the Democrats are probably going to win both seats.

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F&L 2020: Recounts and the Electoral College

Much as Gore did in 2000 — albeit far more loudly — President Trump is refusing to concede the election. Legal teams have been mobilized in several states to draw attention to certain practices which, viewed objectively, are at least questionable. But does this mean Trump still has a chance to win? Why would he challenge the results if he didn’t?

It’s complicated. (You knew I was going to say that.)

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When Will We Know For Sure?

Not today, and probably not tomorrow either. Sorry, but that’s the truth.

In a normal year, we’d have most of these things figured out by now, but this is not a normal year. Thanks to COVID-19, a record number of votes came in by mail, and the outdated laws in most states haven’t yet caught up with the new normal. As a result, some states will still be receiving votes through Friday, one or two over the weekend, and so on. It gets complicated, and there’s no reason you should have to know all the details.

But, what the hell — that’s what we’re here for. Right? …Right?

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I Don’t Care Who Won

It’s been a long night of vote-counting, and the numbers are still trickling in. Tentatively, TNFN believes that the Republicans will hold a bare majority in the Senate, the Democrats will keep the House, and Joe Biden will probably be our next president — after a long, painfully drawn out struggle over places like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and potentially Arizona and Nevada. Some states, it’ll take days to count the mail-in votes, and that’s the way it should be. It means the system is working.

And that’s the news, the morning after Election Day.

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Fear and Loathing: Handicapping 2020

It’s coming down to the wire, and there’s a ton of nervousness out there about who will win the election. Yes, Uncle Joe has a serious lead in the polls, but The Donald has been shown to be making gains among the undecideds — and we must remember that Clinton too led in the polls in 2016.

After all is said and done, it’s not the popular vote that will decide the election, nor should it be. It’s the Electoral College.

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The Electoral College: A Path Forward

It’s the last week in October, and the rioting and looting is already underway. Election Day is coming up, and we’re told there’s absolutely no way the votes will be counted that night.

This is going to get ugly.

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Why We Don’t Have COVID Relief

The Senate has adjourned for their pre-election break following marathon sessions to confirm a new Supreme Court justice. This makes it highly unlikely that we’ll see more stimulus checks before Election Day.

But for once the blame doesn’t actually belong to the Senate, despite how bad this looks. They don’t have anything to vote on.

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